Moves That Matter

What happened

Fox Advisors downgraded Sandisk (SNDK) from Overweight to Equal Weight on Monday, November 2, sending the stock down 6.6% to $1,075.08 (as low as $1,067.40 intraday). The downgrade landed alongside a cluster of target cuts: RBC lowered its price target to $1,400 from $1,600 (Sector Perform), and Wells Fargo cut its target to $1,300 from $1,550 with an Equal Weight rating late last week. It also comes amid a broader memory-stock selloff after Kioxia's cautious outlook raised fears the flash-memory price surge could fade. Bulls still hold sway: Mizuho raised its target to $2,050, Evercore has a $3,100 Outperform target, and the consensus remains Moderate Buy with a ~$2,056 average target.

What happened

The AI-spending selloff extended into a third straight day of tech declines on Monday, November 2. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.07% to 25,164.32 and the S&P 500 slipped 0.51% to 7,541.40, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.41% to 51,983.98 — the only major index to finish higher. Technology was the worst sector at -2.66%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 3.37%. Intel tumbled another 8.8% after its ~30% Friday collapse; Marvell Technology plunged 12.72% and Lumentum 18.59% as the market punished the $115B all-stock merger; Oracle sank 8.85% to $119.10 after filing a $20B stock-and-bond raise; Micron fell 5.7% and Seagate 8%.

What happened

Palantir reported Q3 results after Monday's close: revenue nearly doubled to $2.31B (+96% YoY), beating the ~$2.18B consensus, with adjusted EPS of $0.44 vs $0.41 expected. The milestone: U.S. commercial revenue surged 148% to $984M, overtaking U.S. government revenue ($953M, +96%) for the first time in company history — commercial has more than quintupled in two years. Net income more than doubled to $1.13B (49% net margin). The company raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $8.53B (implying ~91% growth) and set Q4 revenue guidance of $2.65B, ~8% above consensus. The stock traded lower in the extended session as investors focused on slower growth in total contract value ($2.92B, +6% YoY).

What happened

Oracle filed with the SEC on Monday to raise $20 billion — $10 billion in new common stock (~76.5 million shares at Friday's $130.67 close) plus $10 billion in senior notes across six tranches maturing 2029–2046 — to fund its AI and cloud data-center buildout. The deals are independent of each other and proceeds are earmarked for 'general corporate purposes' including capex, debt repayment, acquisitions, dividends and buybacks. Shares fell 6–7% Monday. The timing stung: at last Wednesday's investor day Oracle had committed to limiting additional capital-markets funding through fiscal 2030 to exactly $20 billion — and has now used all of it in one transaction. The company carries ~$125B–$236B in consolidated debt (figures differ by measure) after already completing a $20B at-the-market stock sale earlier in FY27.

What happened

Apple reported fiscal Q4 results after Monday's close — its first under new CEO John Ternus — with revenue of $114.5 billion (+12% YoY), a September-quarter record that beat the ~$113.35B consensus. EPS was $2.10 (+14% YoY), ahead of the $1.99 consensus, though 5 cents came from tariff refunds and EPS excluding them ($2.05) missed the $2.07 whisper. iPhone revenue hit a September-quarter record of $57.6B (+17%), Mac rose 24% to $10.8B, and Services set an all-time high of $31.6B (+10%); the iPad was the quarter's weak spot, coming in around $6.2B and missing estimates. The stock barely moved in after-hours trading. The board declared a $0.27 quarterly dividend payable November 16.

What happened

Oil prices plunged Monday on the strongest signs yet of U.S.-Iran diplomatic progress: WTI crude fell as much as 8.1% to $95.70 a barrel and Brent as much as 8.5% to $108.83, wiping out Friday's late surge and more as WTI slipped back under $100. The catalyst was a burst of diplomatic signals: the Wall Street Journal reported that Vice President JD Vance sent a message to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, to restart peace talks; Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei had granted the government 'certain authorities' to pursue negotiations; and Iranian negotiators circulated a draft proposal after days of talks with Qatari mediators, with a follow-up meeting possible. The slide was reinforced on the supply side when seven OPEC+ producers agreed Sunday to keep December production targets unchanged, declining to add cuts that would have supported prices.

What happened

The Washington Post reported on Monday that SpaceX has been in talks for months with EchoStar about either acquiring Boost Mobile outright or gaining access to its wireless network, according to people familiar with the negotiations. Elon Musk personally met EchoStar chairman Charlie Ergen last month to discuss a potential transaction. The move would support SpaceX's plan to build Starlink Mobile, a hybrid satellite-terrestrial network combining its satellite constellation with ground-based infrastructure to challenge AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile as a fourth national carrier. EchoStar had about 7.38 million wireless subscribers at the end of Q2, mostly through Boost Mobile and Gen Mobile — a ready-made customer base and retail distribution network for SpaceX. SpaceX has also approached AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon about buying network capacity directly; all three rebuffed it, and the carriers may need to approve any Boost transfer since network-leasing agreements are usually nontransferable. Neither SpaceX nor EchoStar commented. Telecom stocks fell more than 2% each on the report while EchoStar rose roughly 4-5%.

What happened

Phillip Securities upgraded Amazon to 'Buy' from 'Accumulate' on Monday, November 2, raising its price target from $320 to $330, implying about 38% upside from Friday's $240.35 close. Analyst Helena Wang cited strong demand visibility supporting Amazon's aggressive AI capex, Amazon's model-agnostic AI strategy, custom Graviton and Trainium chips, and partnerships with major AI developers. The firm raised its FY2027 revenue estimate by 2%, adjusted net income forecast by 3%, and FY2027 capex estimate by 3%, pointing to AWS's 39.3% year-over-year growth (roughly $46 billion in Q3 revenue) and a record 13.9% operating margin. AMZN rose about 4.6% to $251.49 on Monday, one of the Dow's biggest gainers, as the upgrade joined the Anthropic IPO-filing news in lifting the stock off its post-earnings lows.

What happened

Anthropic filed an amended IPO prospectus with the SEC on Monday disclosing third-quarter results: revenue of $16.95-16.96 billion, up 1,127% from $1.38 billion a year earlier and up from $11.56 billion in Q2. The company posted a $567 million operating loss, versus $974 million in operating income in Q2 — which was Anthropic's only profitable quarter out of its last seven. The loss was driven by $5 billion in short-term compute agreements (priced above long-term contracted capacity) plus $2 billion in non-cash charges tied to an employee donation-matching program. Compute and infrastructure expenses reached $9.86 billion, or 58% of revenue, up from 48% in Q2. Net loss narrowed to $23.29 billion from $66.3 billion in Q2, but was driven mostly by mark-to-market charges on convertible notes as Anthropic's valuation rose. Critically, the filing quantified for the first time about $895.4 billion in committed compute and infrastructure spending as of September 30, with partners including Amazon and Alphabet's Google — among the largest AI infrastructure commitments on record. Anthropic cautioned it does not expect revenue to keep growing at comparable rates. The company is seeking a reported $1.5-2 trillion valuation, which would make this one of the biggest IPOs of all time.

What happened

Morgan Stanley downgraded Coinbase to Underweight from Equal Weight on Monday morning and cut its price target to $120 from $258 — a 53% reduction that resets the Street's bearish anchor on the stock. Shares fell 2.1% to $140.40 in early trading. The downgrade lands the same morning Coinbase is also digesting the weekend's $6.3 billion Binance hack, the largest crypto heist ever, which had crypto-related equities tumbling in premarket trading.

What happened

Marvell Technology announced a definitive agreement on Monday, November 2 to acquire Lumentum in an all-stock transaction with an implied enterprise value of about $115 billion (equity value ~$102.5 billion). Under the terms, Lumentum shareholders will receive a fixed 4.500 Marvell shares per Lumentum share, implying ~$1,132 per Lumentum share — a 23.9% premium to the unaffected October 28 closing prices. Lumentum holders would own about 33% of the combined company; Marvell CEO Matt Murphy stays chairman and CEO, with three Lumentum directors (including CEO Michael Hurlston) joining Marvell's board. The companies cite a combined $550 billion addressable market, more than $1 billion in annual run-rate cost synergies (mostly from cost of goods sold), and accretion to Marvell's non-GAAP EPS in the first year after closing, expected in the first half of 2028 subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals. Because the exchange ratio is fixed, the deal's dollar value floats with Marvell's share price until closing.

What happened

Marriott International reported Q3 2026 results before the open on Monday, November 2: revenue of $7.01 billion (+8% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $3.02, beating consensus by ~6% ($2.85–2.86 estimated). Worldwide RevPAR grew 6.5% on higher rates (ADR +4.8%) and occupancy (up 1.1 pts to 72.5%), with U.S. & Canada up 7.4% and international markets up 4.4%. Gross fee revenue rose 14% and adjusted EBITDA climbed 12% to $1.512 billion. Management raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $12.11 at the midpoint (+3.2% lift) and guided EBITDA to $6.09 billion, above consensus. The development pipeline hit a record 634,000+ rooms, net rooms grew 4.6% YoY, and the company returned ~$4.0 billion to shareholders year-to-date through October 28 via buybacks ($3.4B) and dividends. Shares jumped about 8% Monday morning.

What happened

Alphabet is selling €6 billion ($6.7 billion) of euro-denominated bonds on Monday, November 2 — its second euro sale this year after a €9 billion six-tranche deal in May. The offering spans seven tranches (one floating-rate, six fixed-rate) with maturities from 2 to 19 years; initial guidance was ~60 bps over mid-swaps for the 2-year fixed and 205–210 bps for the 19-year, with total demand topping €17 billion, according to a deal-manager memo seen by Reuters. Barclays, BNP Paribas and Deutsche Bank are joint bookrunners, with pricing expected later Monday. Proceeds are earmarked for general corporate purposes, which may include repaying outstanding debt — the company framed it as funding for its AI infrastructure buildout. The SEC filing also disclosed that Alphabet has signed data-center leases not yet commenced totaling ~$130.5 billion in future payments off the balance sheet.

What happened

The Wall Street Journal reports that Meta's personal AI agent Muse, launched in September, is emerging as a competitive threat to Amazon's dominance in online shopping. More than 10 million people in the U.S. and Canada set up Muse agents in its first month and a half, Meta said. The threat lies in Muse's potential to undermine one of Amazon's most lucrative businesses: advertising, where Amazon booked nearly $70 billion last year, trailing only Alphabet's Google and Meta. Muse can find and buy products for users, effectively bypassing the human browsing experience that Amazon's ad-driven retail model depends on. JPMorgan analysts said in a note that Muse 'has the potential to become the most widely used consumer AI application since ChatGPT.'

What happened

The Financial Times reported Friday, Oct. 30 that OpenAI cut the target for its latest funding round by $10 billion, to about $20 billion, and lowered the valuation it is seeking to $1.25 trillion from $1.4 trillion pitched last month. The Wall Street Journal separately reported Friday that only about $11 billion was committed by the Oct. 31 deadline, less than half the original $30 billion ask, with several investors reducing their allocations. OpenAI plans to raise additional money from family offices and high-net-worth individuals in the coming weeks to reach $20 billion.

What happened

After 13 days of U.S. strikes on Iran, President Trump paused further strikes over the weekend in the name of diplomacy, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Monday that Trump prefers a diplomatic solution and wants to avoid further military action. Oil prices fell in response: Brent crude dropped about 3% to $109.97 a barrel and WTI fell about 3.4% to $100.63. However, reports in the same coverage suggest both the U.S. and Iran are preparing for possible military action after the November 3 U.S. midterm elections, meaning the de-escalation is fragile and explicitly time-limited.

What happened

The People's Bank of China announced a structural shift in its short-term monetary policy framework toward the overnight rate, introducing daily overnight reverse repo operations at a fixed rate of 1.25%. The 1.25% overnight rate replaces the long-standing seven-day benchmark (currently 1.40%) as the primary policy anchor. The PBoC will use fixed-rate, quantity-based tenders to refine interest-rate management, modernizing its framework toward the corridor-style systems used by Western central banks.

What happened

SBI Research, the economic research arm of State Bank of India, reported overnight that the combined debt of the Magnificent Seven has risen nearly 45% to $578 billion by mid-2026, up from about $399 billion in 2025 and roughly 1.7 times the group's 2023 debt level. The report flags that balance-sheet debt is only part of the picture: the seven companies also carry substantial off-balance-sheet commitments tied to purchases and investments for AI data centers, chips and power. Using an equity-duration approach, SBI estimates that a rise in bond yields could cut the group's combined ~$23 trillion market value by $1.67-2 trillion. The note also calls Anthropic's expected listing around November 12 (targeting a $1.5-2T valuation) a 'high-stakes litmus test' for whether AI revenues can justify infrastructure costs.

What happened

Oil prices fell more than 1% in early Asian trading on Monday, Nov. 2, as Iranian and Qatari officials held a third consecutive day of talks aimed at ending the US-Iran war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude futures fell about $1.59 (-1.4% to -1.6%) to roughly $111.62-$111.84 a barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate fell about $1.56 (-1.5%) to roughly $102.32-$102.56 a barrel, according to Reuters via The Hindu BusinessLine and CCTV News reports. The drop reflects traders trimming some of the geopolitical premium built into crude in recent weeks rather than any change in physical supply, which remains constrained while Hormuz flows are disrupted. Separately, seven core OPEC+ producers (Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman) kept December production targets unchanged at a Sunday videoconference, the third straight month of flat targets. Meanwhile Iran's Revolutionary Guards navy claimed on Sunday that two 'non-compliant' oil tankers — one of them a supertanker — struck mines and exploded while sailing unauthorized routes in the strait; the claim has not been independently verified.

What happened

Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) announced that all vessels belonging to South Korean tanker giant Sinokor will face 'legal action' starting November 1, effectively barring the company's entire fleet from the Strait of Hormuz. The authority said Sinokor vessels committed the highest number of crossing violations over the past three months and that enforcement action had already been taken against at least seven related ships. It is the first time Tehran has issued a blanket ban covering a whole shipowner's fleet. Sinokor did not immediately comment.

What happened

The average U.S. price for a gallon of gasoline touched $4.30 mid-week per AAA (reported by Al Jazeera), the highest level in four years, since late July 2022 — but AAA data shows prices were already declining, not rising: the national average fell for six-to-seven consecutive days to roughly $4.18-4.20 by Saturday, down about 11 cents over the past week and roughly 25 cents from a month ago (the switch to cheaper winter-blend gasoline helping; crude near $100+ limiting the decline). Diesel averaged roughly $6.30 nationally. President Trump, asked about the increase, said gasoline prices will 'drop like a rock' as soon as the war with Iran ends, while insisting 'time is on his side' and refusing Tehran's offers of a preliminary deal to reopen the strait.

What happened

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera on Sunday that Tehran and Qatari mediators have a concrete proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days of Washington beginning to meet Iran's conditions — a sequencing in which the U.S. would take steps on day one and maritime traffic would resume on day two. The two-day window is a sharp shortening of the implementation period: Qatar had earlier proposed five days, itself a compression of Tehran's original seven-day plan from September. Araghchi listed the conditions as lifting post-Islamabad-memorandum sanctions, reducing the U.S. military presence in the region, restoring oil waivers, and releasing frozen Iranian funds including roughly $6 billion held in Qatar; he called the U.S. dialogue offer 'a positive step' but said Tehran has no immediate plans to meet U.S. officials directly. President Trump said negotiations were 'going fine' but that the U.S. was 'not in that much of a hurry' since it has degraded Iran's navy, air force and air defenses — and warned Washington could strike Iran's remaining nuclear sites in 'ten minutes'; Secretary of State Rubio said Oct 31 that Trump has not decided on fresh strikes and prefers a diplomatic settlement. Meanwhile the kinetic picture worsened: a projectile struck the LNG tanker AL MAYEDA ~40 nautical miles off Iran's Lavan Island on Friday evening (fire aboard, crew safe), Saudi air defenses downed eight Houthi missiles/drones since Friday, air raids hit an oil facility in Yemen's Hodeidah wounding at least three civilians, and Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ordered commanders to respond 'immediately and effectively' to any attack with no geographic limits. Separately, security chief Mohsen Rezaei said on Iranian state TV that the U.S. 'tone has completely changed' after he reviewed Vice President Vance's letter.

What happened

On Iranian state television Saturday, Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei said Iran will keep the Strait of Hormuz closed until the United States meets SEVEN conditions, each containing two or three sub-requirements — a hardening of the three conditions (sanctions relief, U.S. force pullback, frozen funds released) reported in Tehran's 2-day reopening offer earlier Saturday. He said the guarantees sought span financial and other issues, that a reopened strait would run under an Iranian-and-Oman-agreed route in the strait's center — effectively 'under Iranian management' — and that Tehran is waiting for a final American response that could arrive as early as Sunday. On the same day, Foreign Minister Araghchi confirmed to Al Jazeera that the 2-day reopening plan was negotiated with Qatari mediators (whose team spent 12+ hours in Tehran Friday), and Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei publicly warned the U.S. and Israel against new attacks. Separately, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Saturday that President Trump has not decided on fresh strikes and prefers a diplomatic solution.

What happened

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera on Saturday, Oct. 31, that talks with Qatari mediators have produced a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days — but only on Tehran's terms. His stated conditions: lifting the sanctions imposed after the collapsed Islamabad memorandum (the June U.S.-Iran deal), reducing U.S. forces in the region, restoring waivers allowing countries to buy Iranian oil, and releasing all of Iran's frozen money (Al Jazeera's reporter cited $6 billion held in Qatar alone). Araghchi also addressed a letter from Vice President JD Vance — the back-channel outreach to Iranian hard-liner Mohsen Rezaei reported earlier this week — calling it a positive step but offering no concession on the conditions. As of publication, the White House had issued no public response to the two-day plan. On Friday, President Trump had said the war will end "very soon, one way or the other," without terms or a timeline, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Saturday that Trump has not yet decided on military action against Iran.