Market-moving news for Saturday, October 31, 2026

What happened

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera on Saturday, Oct. 31, that talks with Qatari mediators have produced a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days — but only on Tehran's terms. His stated conditions: lifting the sanctions imposed after the collapsed Islamabad memorandum (the June U.S.-Iran deal), reducing U.S. forces in the region, restoring waivers allowing countries to buy Iranian oil, and releasing all of Iran's frozen money (Al Jazeera's reporter cited $6 billion held in Qatar alone). Araghchi also addressed a letter from Vice President JD Vance — the back-channel outreach to Iranian hard-liner Mohsen Rezaei reported earlier this week — calling it a positive step but offering no concession on the conditions. As of publication, the White House had issued no public response to the two-day plan. On Friday, President Trump had said the war will end "very soon, one way or the other," without terms or a timeline, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Saturday that Trump has not yet decided on military action against Iran.

What happened

The US is poised to reenter indirect talks with Iran in Qatar, after Qatari mediators spent 12 hours in Tehran on Friday trying to prevent another escalation, remaining in 'regular contact' with the White House (Axios, via NY Post, Oct 31). Qatari newspaper Al-Araby Al-Jadeed reported the two sides had agreed on preliminary measures addressing Iran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz. A draft framework reported by Al Arabiya calls for Iran to transfer its stockpile of highly enriched uranium to an agreed third country, for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen within seven days of an initial agreement, and for China and Russia to potentially provide implementation guarantees, with 'financial incentives' for Tehran (Times of Israel). Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei warned the US in a Saturday Telegram post not to strike again, threatening a 'geographically unrestricted response' to any new attacks.

What happened

At the close of trading on Friday, October 30, Apple reclaimed the title of the world's most valuable publicly traded company with a $5.03 trillion market capitalization, overtaking Nvidia's $4.93 trillion. Apple's shares fell only about 1.2% on the session while Nvidia plunged 4.2%, giving Apple a roughly $100 billion advantage. This is Apple's first time atop the ranking since briefly leading in July. Microsoft rose to third at $3.88 trillion, Alphabet fourth at $3.44 trillion, and Amazon fifth at $2.60 trillion.

What happened

U.S. Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz said on 'Sunday Morning Futures' that the Trump administration is working to blunt rising oil prices by allowing Iranian crude already loaded on tankers to be sold, describing it as turning Tehran's own strategy against it. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent first outlined the approach: the administration could temporarily lift sanctions on roughly 140 million barrels of Iranian oil stranded on tankers, adding supply to global markets. Waltz said those shipments — previously bound largely for China — could be redirected to countries like India and Bangladesh, while financial sanctions on Iran's banks stay in place so Tehran 'does not see any of that money.' Waltz framed the move as one step in a broader package alongside domestic drilling, a Jones Act waiver, and other supply measures.

What happened

China's National Bureau of Statistics reported on Saturday that the official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 in October from 50.1 in September, missing the Reuters poll forecast of 50.0 and marking a return to contraction — the third contraction in four months. The production sub-index dropped to 49.8 from 51.7 and new orders fell to 49.4 from 50.5, with new export orders also weakening to 48.7. The non-manufacturing PMI (services and construction) eased to 49.7 from 50.2, and the composite output index fell to 49.7 from 50.7. NBS statistician Huo Lihui attributed part of the weakness to demand pulled forward ahead of the National Day holiday and a complex international environment.