Moves That Matter

What happened

On Thursday, Nov. 12, a wave of Wall Street firms moved on Nvidia the morning after the Wall Street Journal reported the board is preparing to oust CEO Jensen Huang. William Blair downgraded Nvidia to Market Perform from Outperform, warning Huang's likely departure and heightened scrutiny are 'a significant overhang' on the shares. Oppenheimer cut its rating to Perform from Outperform and removed its price target altogether. Bernstein downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform and halved its target to $200 from $400, citing leadership uncertainty rather than chip demand, and kept its earnings forecasts unchanged. Stifel cut its target to $205 from $315 while keeping a Buy, saying it now considers a leadership transition its base case and valuing the stock at 13 times fiscal 2028 EPS of $15.65, down from a 20-times multiple. Citi cut its target a second time this week, to $225 from $285, while keeping a Buy. Dan Ives estimated Nvidia is worth $225 without Huang versus $300 with him as CEO, and said he expects Huang to be removed. Nvidia shares fell more than 6% in premarket trading, on track for lows last seen in July 2025.

What happened

The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday evening, Nov. 11, that Nvidia's board is preparing to oust CEO Jensen Huang after he had two extramarital affairs — one with Alice Huang, a Singapore-based data-center executive U.S. intelligence officials believe is working for China's intelligence services, and a second, newly reported affair with Kimberly Powell, a senior Nvidia executive who runs the company's healthcare business and reports to Huang (first reported by The New York Times on Wednesday). The board is planning to meet as soon as Wednesday to determine his future, according to people familiar with the matter. Nvidia shares fell about 8% in after-hours trading on the report. Polymarket bettors put 77% odds on Huang leaving his position by resignation or removal by year-end.

What happened

Chinese AI companies are rushing to rent Nvidia-powered computing capacity at data centres outside China, fearing the scandal engulfing Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang could spur Washington to tighten restrictions on their remote use of advanced processors, Reuters reported on November 12, citing three people familiar with the matter. A major Chinese cloud provider has discussed internally whether to lock in overseas Nvidia chip capacity, while other firms have contacted data-centre operators about reserving it; smaller AI labs are approaching rented-compute providers in Southeast Asia. The prospect of tougher enforcement has also fuelled grey-market stockpiling of restricted Nvidia AI chips in China, with traders and intermediaries buying up processors on fears of a broader US crackdown on smuggling. The report also notes procurement records showing a Chinese university with deep ties to the People's Liberation Army bought Nvidia's powerful H200 AI chips last month despite being on a US export blacklist.

What happened

Deutsche Bank revised its Federal Reserve forecast to three consecutive 25bp rate hikes — in December 2026, January 2027 and March 2027 — adding a January move to its previous December-and-March path with a pause in between. The bank said the revision followed October CPI, which rose 0.4% month-on-month against a 0.3% consensus forecast, with broad-based price gains. Three quarter-point hikes would lift the federal funds target range to 4.50%-4.75%, from 3.75%-4.00% now. Deutsche Bank also said it would not rule out a 50bp December hike after Fed Governor Waller floated the idea, though a half-point move is not its base case.

What happened

OpenAI told investors on a call on Tuesday, November 10 that its third-quarter revenue topped $10 billion for the first time, up nearly 50% from $6.7 billion in the second quarter and almost triple the year-earlier level, according to reports by Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal and The Information. The figures put OpenAI's annual revenue run rate at roughly $50 billion. CFO Sarah Friar called it a 'blockbuster quarter,' saying enterprise revenue doubled quarter over quarter and now roughly equals consumer revenue, driven by coding tool Codex — now its largest revenue source — cybersecurity and its enterprise agent platform Dots. However, OpenAI's operating loss widened to $10.9 billion from $10.1 billion in Q2, though its adjusted operating margin improved to -109% from -150%.

What happened

After Tuesday's hot October CPI report, Goldman Sachs' US Economics team (led by David Mericle) dropped its call that the Fed's December hike would be the last of the cycle. Goldman now expects another quarter-point hike in March 2027, taking the fed funds rate to a peak of 4.25% to 4.5%, up from 3.75% to 4% today, and pushed its first rate cut back a quarter to December 2027. Goldman still expects a 25bp hike at the Fed's December 8-9 meeting and left its estimate of the terminal rate once cuts begin unchanged at 3.25% to 3.5%.

What happened

Dell Technologies (DELL) jumped about 14% in Wednesday's afternoon session to around $382.93, after the company announced an expansion of its AI Data Platform with enhanced storage, search and analytics features, and partnered with KIOXIA America to create a 157 petabyte object storage architecture built in a standard 42U rack using Dell ObjectScale on PowerEdge servers with KIOXIA 245.76 TB solid-state drives. The move came as CoreWeave's better-than-expected Q3 results eased fears of cooling AI infrastructure spending and lifted the whole AI hardware complex.

What happened

The Information reported on Tuesday, Nov 10, that Alice Huang — the businesswoman US intelligence officials believe was recruited by China's Ministry of State Security and with whom Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang admitted an affair — used her relationship with Huang and a network of family-linked companies to help move roughly 240,000 Nvidia chips subject to US export controls, worth at least $7.5 billion, into China since 2023. The chips were mostly H100 and H200 accelerators plus some older A100s. At the center was Shanghai Century Litong, founded in June 2023 under the indirect control of Alice Huang's sister Huang Yu, which secured Nvidia preferred cloud partner status by October 2023; Singapore-based Megaspeed, where Alice Huang was managing director in 2023, imported at least $4.6 billion in Nvidia hardware between 2023 and 2025, according to customs records cited by Bloomberg. The FBI is also looking into the matter, and the revelations triggered bipartisan demands in Congress for prompt legislative action to halt advanced semiconductor shipments to Chinese entities. Reuters noted it could not independently verify the report's facts, and Nvidia said it expects distributors and partners to comply with US export restrictions.

What happened

Netflix co-CEO Gregory Peters sold 27,312 shares of Netflix stock on Monday, Nov 9, at an average price of $63.62 per share, for a total of about $1.74 million, according to an SEC filing disclosed Nov 11. The sale cut his stake by 18.61%, leaving him with 119,412 shares worth about $7.6 million. The filing gives no reason for the sale. NFLX slipped more than 1% in the overnight session late Tuesday and opened Wednesday at $63.26, near its 52-week low, with the stock down 32.5% year to date.

What happened

Costco's board declared a special cash dividend of $30 per share on Tuesday, Nov 10 — a record one-off payout worth about $13.3 billion in total, double the $15 special dividend Costco last paid. The dividend is payable Dec 4, 2026 to shareholders of record at the close of business on Nov 24. The board also approved a new $4 billion share repurchase program running through November 2030, replacing the 2023 authorization (due to expire January 2027) under which $3.1 billion had already been spent. Costco shares gained overnight after the announcement. The company gave no executive commentary and did not say how the dividend or buyback would be funded.

What happened

China Renaissance upgraded Apple to Buy from Hold on Wednesday, Nov 11, and raised its price target to $425 from $280 — a Street-high target implying about 22% upside from the Nov 10 close of $348.51. The upgrade reverses the firm's Aug 4 downgrade, which had been driven by sluggish Services growth and margin pressure from memory costs. The call lands after Apple reported a fiscal Q4 revenue record of $114.5 billion, up 12% year over year, with Services revenue at an all-time high. The $425 target sits far above the Street consensus average of about $347, which implies roughly no upside from current levels. Apple shares rose about 1.4% in Wednesday morning trading, to around $353.

What happened

Robert W. Baird downgraded Nvidia to Neutral from Outperform on Wednesday, Nov 11, and cut its price target by 60% to $200 from $500, analyst Tristan Gerra citing growing risks from U.S. restrictions on chip sales to China and a potential slowdown in AI spending. Baird said it is delaying its 2027 data-center growth forecasts due to supply constraints, softer demand and limited visibility, expects hyperscaler AI spending growth to slow to 40% or lower in 2027, with 10-30% of channel orders potentially facing early reductions, and cited uncertainty around whether CEO Jensen Huang will stay on into 2027 as another factor. Morgan Stanley separately removed Nvidia from its semiconductor Top Pick list while maintaining an Overweight rating and $300 target. Despite the downgrade, Nvidia shares rallied in Wednesday morning trading — up about 1.8% to $171.90 at 9:49 AM ET — on the CoreWeave-driven AI rebound, on track for the stock's best day in over two months.

What happened

Microsoft (MSFT) closed Tuesday, November 10 ahead of Nvidia (NVDA) in market capitalization, becoming the world's second-most-valuable publicly traded company behind Apple. Microsoft finished at $533.16 per share for a market value of $3.96 trillion, slightly ahead of Nvidia, whose market cap sank below $4 trillion. Nvidia has plunged 25% in the past month, including a 17% decline over the last week, after reports that CEO Jensen Huang was the target of a Chinese espionage effort. The slide has pushed Nvidia's valuation to a 15-year low: the stock trades at just 11.77 times expected earnings over the next 12 months, its lowest multiple since 2011, according to FactSet. Nvidia rebounded nearly 4% in premarket trading on Wednesday, November 11, looking to recover part of the past two sessions' losses.

What happened

CoreWeave (CRWV) reported third-quarter 2026 results after Tuesday's close that beat expectations across the board: revenue of $3.66 billion, up 168% year over year and above the roughly $3.55 billion LSEG consensus, with adjusted operating income of $379 million — well above its $200-260 million guidance — and a record revenue backlog of $132.5 billion, up 138% year over year. The company raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $13.0-13.3 billion and lifted its exit-ARR target to $20-21 billion, while forecasting adjusted profitability in the first half of 2028. Shares rose 7.9% in after-hours trading Tuesday to $52.58, then jumped more than 16% in Wednesday premarket trading. The beat ignited a broad premarket rebound in beaten-down AI and semiconductor shares: Nasdaq 100 futures were up 555 points, S&P 500 futures up 71 and Dow futures up 88, with Nvidia rebounding about 4.4% after two sharply lower sessions and Micron and Marvell also advancing.

What happened

On Tuesday, November 10, 2026, Citigroup lowered its price target on Nvidia to $285 from $315 while maintaining a Buy rating, and Wells Fargo lowered its target to $300 from $315 while maintaining an Overweight rating, according to MarketBeat's analyst-ratings log. Both cuts were issued on the same day Nvidia shares fell 5.5% to close at $168.89, the stock's second straight day of sharp declines. Neither bank changed its rating — both remain positive — so the moves are valuation resets rather than thesis breaks, but two cuts from major banks on a single day add to the negative tape around the stock.

What happened

Rosen Law Firm filed a proposed securities class action against Nvidia and CEO Jensen Huang in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California on Monday, Nov 9 — five minutes after the market close, per Reuters — on behalf of lead plaintiff Mark Kistenmacher and investors who bought Nvidia securities between Oct 9, 2025 and Nov 8, 2026. The suit alleges Nvidia and Huang made false and misleading statements and failed to disclose Huang's affair with Alice Huang, a former Megaspeed executive described as a suspected Chinese intelligence source, and the national-security questions it raised about Nvidia's dealings with Megaspeed. It cites spokesperson John Rizzo's statement that Huang's interactions with her were 'not unusual or unexpected' and Huang's Bloomberg comments that Nvidia's Megaspeed dealings were 'normal and not unusual' as deliberate falsehoods, and claims investors bought at artificially inflated prices and suffered losses when Huang acknowledged the relationship — an admission that wiped roughly $190 billion off Nvidia's market value in a single day. Separately, Delaware Senator Chris Coons called for a congressional investigation into the affair on national-security grounds. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives put the odds of Huang losing the CEO post at roughly 15% (85% he stays), while CNBC's Jim Cramer said investors may need to prepare for a future Nvidia without Huang. At least four law firms are now investigating, per TechCrunch, and a lead-plaintiff motion deadline of Jan 8, 2027 applies.

What happened

Nvidia extended its slide on Tuesday, November 10, dropping more than 6% — the steepest decline among major U.S. stocks — amid the ongoing fallout from the board's independent probe into CEO Jensen Huang's reported ties to an alleged Chinese spy. The drop came on top of Monday's 4.27% fall, leaving the stock down roughly 10% in two sessions since the probe was disclosed. The slide also cost Nvidia its market-value lead over Microsoft: Microsoft passed Nvidia for the first time since June 2025, with Nvidia valued at roughly $4.09 trillion against Microsoft's roughly $4.03 trillion in a Nov 9-10 snapshot. The broader market fell alongside, with the Nasdaq down 1.1% and the S&P 500 down 0.6%, and the 10-year Treasury yield surging to 4.99% after the hot October CPI report.

What happened

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan raised the prospect on Tuesday, November 10 of hiking interest rates more quickly this winter, saying there is a case for two 25-basis-point increases, after which it would 'make sense' to pause. She also said Fed policy should be 'modestly' restrictive. Her comments followed Fed Governor Christopher Waller's London speech earlier Tuesday backing a December hike and flagging a possible 50bp move if inflation stayed hot — and the October CPI report, released hours later, printed hotter than expected at +0.4% headline and +0.3% core. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows an 88% likelihood of a 25bp increase and a 12% likelihood of a 50bp raise at the December FOMC meeting, with the odds of a 50bp move rising to 52% for January. The current Fed funds target rate sits at 3.75%-4%.

What happened

Anthropic unveiled a suite of workplace productivity tools at an event in San Francisco on Tuesday, November 10, taking direct aim at Microsoft Office and Google Workspace. The new tools are Claude Sheets — a collaborative spreadsheet with tabs, formulas and dropdowns that exports to Excel — Claude Whiteboards, a shared planning canvas, and Claude Meetings, an agent that joins Google Meet calls to take notes, draft plans and update documents in real time. Anthropic also made Claude Data (formerly Claude Dashboards) generally available and upgraded its interactive connectors so partner apps such as Adobe, Atlassian and HubSpot run inside Claude. Sheets and Whiteboards are in beta for paid plans; Meetings is in beta for Team and Enterprise customers. Microsoft shares dropped as much as 3% intraday after the news, per CNBC, and were down more than 2% in afternoon trading, while Alphabet reversed lower.

What happened

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday, November 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET that the consumer price index rose 0.4% month-on-month in October, above the 0.3% consensus forecast, after a 0.6% jump in September. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% — above the 0.2% forecast and the third consecutive monthly 0.3% reading. Shelter rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the monthly increase; food rose 0.5% and energy 0.7%. No official 12-month inflation rate was published for headline or core, because BLS never collected October 2025 prices during last year's government shutdown. S&P 500 futures slid after the release, reversing some of Monday's 2.35% rally, and markets moved to price a 99% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed hike on December 9, with odds of a further hike by the March 17 meeting jumping to 67% from 50% on Monday.

What happened

Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage of The TJX Companies (TJX) at Neutral and set a price target of $139, according to a TradingView/Benzinga item published at 12:53 UTC on Tuesday, November 10. The target is roughly in line with TJX's November 9 close of $138.13, implying essentially no upside. TJX shares opened Tuesday at $138.02 and are up about 2% on the day. The initiation comes eight days before TJX reports fiscal third-quarter results on Wednesday, November 18, before the market opens.

What happened

Anthropic, the startup behind the Claude AI assistant, set a price range of $70 to $78 per share for its initial public offering on Tuesday, November 10. At the midpoint, the offering would raise about $61 billion; combined with options and unvested stock, that values the company at roughly $1.1 trillion, and at the top of the range it could be worth $1.4 trillion — potentially the biggest IPO in history, eclipsing SpaceX's record $86 billion debut in June. The company is expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq under ticker ANT as soon as next week, with the Wall Street Journal reporting plans to list Thursday or Friday next week. The filing revealed $17 billion in sales in the most recent quarter, up 1,127% year over year, and $33.2 billion in the first nine months of 2026 versus $4.6 billion in all of 2025 — but also a net loss of $80.7 billion in the first half, nearly $900 billion in committed compute spending, reliance on just five customers for a quarter of sales, and a convoluted staggered lock-up that lets some non-founder insiders sell 10% of holdings on day one.

What happened

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said at a conference in London on Tuesday that he would support raising interest rates by 25 basis points in December. "However, if inflation comes in substantially higher than I expect, more robust action by the FOMC may be called for," he added. Markets repriced sharply: LSEG data showed the probability of a December hike jumping to 98% from 84% before the comments. The dollar turned higher (DXY +0.1% to 101.703) and Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year ticking up ~2bp to 4.882% and the 2-year up 6.7bp to 4.613%, per Tradeweb.

What happened

U.S. stocks closed sharply higher on Monday, November 9, snapping back from last week's AI-driven rout. The S&P 500 rose 2.35%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.15% (about 1,100 points), and the Nasdaq 100 jumped 3.40%. Dip buyers stepped into beaten-down chipmakers and AI-infrastructure names: the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closed up more than 6%, AMD surged over 13%, Applied Materials rose more than 11%, and Lam Research and Seagate each gained more than 10%. The other six Magnificent Seven stocks all rallied — Tesla and Meta each up more than 5%, Amazon and Microsoft up more than 3%, Apple up more than 2% — while Nvidia fell more than 4% after its board launched an investigation into CEO Jensen Huang. WTI crude oil tumbled more than 4% to a 2.25-month low on optimism over U.S.-Iran diplomacy, and September wholesale trade sales rose 2.8% month over month, well above the 1.1% expected and the largest increase in four months.