Baird downgrades Nvidia to Neutral, slashes price target 60% to $200 on China curbs and AI slowdown fears
What happened
Robert W. Baird downgraded Nvidia to Neutral from Outperform on Wednesday, Nov 11, and cut its price target by 60% to $200 from $500, analyst Tristan Gerra citing growing risks from U.S. restrictions on chip sales to China and a potential slowdown in AI spending. Baird said it is delaying its 2027 data-center growth forecasts due to supply constraints, softer demand and limited visibility, expects hyperscaler AI spending growth to slow to 40% or lower in 2027, with 10-30% of channel orders potentially facing early reductions, and cited uncertainty around whether CEO Jensen Huang will stay on into 2027 as another factor. Morgan Stanley separately removed Nvidia from its semiconductor Top Pick list while maintaining an Overweight rating and $300 target. Despite the downgrade, Nvidia shares rallied in Wednesday morning trading — up about 1.8% to $171.90 at 9:49 AM ET — on the CoreWeave-driven AI rebound, on track for the stock's best day in over two months.
Why it matters & what’s next are part of Pro, along with the audio summary.
Start your free 14-day trialWho’s affected
- Nvidia (NVDA) — direct; downgraded to Neutral with the Street-high $500 target cut 60% to $200, though the stock rallied Wednesday morning on the CoreWeave rebound
- AI hardware / chip peers (Dell, Broadcom, Micron, Marvell) — Baird's 2027 data-center slowdown call hits the whole AI supply chain
- Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta) — Baird expects their AI spending growth to slow to 40% or lower in 2027
- Semiconductor sector — the first outright NVDA downgrade of the probe saga sets the bear case for the AI trade into earnings