Moves That Matter

What happened

Volkswagen's Audi brand plans a new $4 billion assembly plant in Macon, Georgia, producing about 200,000 SUVs a year and creating about 4,500 jobs, President Donald Trump announced at a rally in Perry, Georgia on Saturday, October 24, with Audi CEO Gernot Doellner on stage. The plant is expected to build the Q7, Q8 and Q9 SUVs, with construction starting next year and vehicle production targeted for the early 2030s. Audi also plans to expand its Scout Motors factory under construction in Blythewood, South Carolina by 25,000 units a year. A final investment decision still has to be taken by Volkswagen's supervisory board.

What happened

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said on Friday, October 23, in a video podcast hosted by Andreessen Horowitz co-founder Ben Horowitz and general partner Erik Torenberg, that Amazon Web Services capacity for 2026 is already sold out, capacity for 2027 is largely committed, and a significant portion of 2028 capacity is already booked, as reported by Reuters. Jassy described AI infrastructure demand as insatiable, driven by AI labs and enterprises, and said Amazon keeps some capacity available for on-demand services, EC2 and Bedrock inference, but that the large longer-term capacity blocks are largely committed. He said Amazon's roughly $220 billion 2026 capex plan could rise further, adding: 'If we could build more, we would; this would not be an inefficient use of capital.'

What happened

Elon Musk said on Sunday, October 25, in a post on X, that SpaceX has closed $40 billion in debt financing to buy graphics processing units (GPUs) from Nvidia, with deliveries expected in the first and second quarters of 2027. Musk said the debt is primarily callable and 'not a major factor this quarter,' attributing SpaceX's ability to raise it to its investment-grade status and revenue from Starlink and rocket launches. In the same posts, Musk warned that debt markets have 'almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn't have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers,' predicting that 'the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation' and that SpaceX will not buy any neoclouds. One caveat carried by Reuters: it was not immediately clear from Musk's post what 'closed' means or whether investors have agreed on pricing for the debt, and Musk named no lenders, rate, or maturity.

What happened

Yemen's Houthis claimed seven missile and drone attacks on Saudi targets on Saturday, Oct. 24, including King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and Saudi oil facilities, and on Sunday the Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted drones and missiles over Riyadh and ten ballistic missiles fired toward the south, issuing emergency alerts for Riyadh, Abha and Khamis Mushait. Gulf markets fell sharply Sunday: Saudi Arabia's TASI closed down 2.65% at 9,438.50, its worst session in 18 months and lowest close since March 2021, with decliners outnumbering advancers 348 to 30, while most other Gulf bourses also fell. The Houthis warned they could target King Khalid airport again even as it resumed partial operations Sunday. On Monday, the Houthis said they had attacked Saudi Arabia's East-West crude oil pumping stations, an Aramco facility in Yanbu and the Rabigh refinery — claims without Saudi confirmation — while the Saudi coalition said it destroyed five Houthi missile-storage tunnels, four launchers and a missile storage facility in Yemen.

What happened

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won re-election in Sunday's runoff, taking 51.78% of valid votes (64,248,884) against 48.22% (59,822,138) for right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, with 99.99% counted, becoming the first president to begin a fourth term. The upset — prediction markets had favored Bolsonaro — triggered a sharp overnight selloff in U.S.-listed Brazilian assets: the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) fell 18-19.6% in after-hours trading, Petrobras ADRs lost 11-16%, Itau Unibanco ADRs fell about 13.7%, Vale slipped over 4%, and MercadoLibre dropped about 7%. November real futures fell about 10% on CME, and a Tokyo-listed Ibovespa ETF plunged 15%, with the implied dollar for Monday near R$5.50 versus Friday's R$4.993 close. Bolsonaro's team late Sunday asked courts to annul the runoff over voting issues, according to Investor's Business Daily.

What happened

Instacart (Maplebear, CART) is exploring a possible sale and has held preliminary discussions with potential buyers including Uber and DoorDash, The Information reported on Friday, October 23, citing people familiar with the matter. Instacart has hired an investment bank to evaluate its options, according to the report. Shares of Instacart closed about 9% higher on Friday, while Uber fell nearly 3% and DoorDash dropped more than 4%. Instacart declined to comment; Uber and DoorDash did not immediately respond. Discussions are ongoing and there is no guarantee they lead to a deal. A typical takeover premium of 30-40% would value Instacart at roughly $16-17 billion, versus its roughly $12 billion market value at Thursday's close.

What happened

U.S. stock futures opened Sunday evening higher, reversing some of Friday's sharp selloff, while crude oil futures fell more than 1%. Just after 6 p.m. ET Sunday, S&P 500 futures were up 0.4%, Nasdaq-100 futures up 0.6%, and Dow futures up 0.3% (about 165 points), according to Barron's. Investor's Business Daily later Sunday night reported futures holding modest gains (Dow and S&P 500 up 0.1%, Nasdaq edging higher) with crude oil futures down more than 1%. The rebound follows President Trump's Sunday decision to shelve a planned strike on Iran and point to talks beginning Monday, easing the immediate war premium that had driven Brent above $116.

What happened

Whirlpool reported third-quarter results Monday after the close that missed badly and guided to a full-year loss. Net sales fell 8.8% year over year to $3.677 billion, below Wall Street's $3.9 billion expectation, and the company posted a GAAP loss of $3.80 per diluted share (net loss $249 million versus $73 million profit a year earlier). On an ongoing basis it lost $0.21 per share, versus analysts' expected profit of $0.73. For 2026 it now expects a GAAP loss of $4.95 per share and an ongoing loss of $1.30 per share, with operating cash flow of about $700 million and free cash flow of about $300 million. Shares dropped about 8-8.5% in after-hours trading.

What happened

President Trump has shelved the planned weekend strike on Iran and said U.S.-Iran talks will begin Monday, walking back Saturday's warning that the U.S. could strike as soon as Sunday. Asked by reporters whether the U.S. would attack Iran on Sunday, Trump said there would be no strike that day, while keeping future military options open and framing the choice as between 'finishing it off' and making a deal. The shift followed intensive weekend diplomacy: Qatari officials engaged Iran, the U.S. and Oman, reportedly telling Trump on Saturday that Tehran had accepted a proposal regarding the Strait of Hormuz, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called Trump to urge against military action. No strikes were recorded overnight into Sunday, though Iranian military leaders rejected Trump's characterization of progress and a Tehran-linked source told Fars News Agency no formal accord on the strait had been reached.

What happened

Iran's army said on Sunday, October 25, that its air defence systems shot down a US Low-Cost Uncrewed Combat Attack System (LUCAS) drone over the southern port city of Bandar Abbas, near the Strait of Hormuz, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency as reported by Reuters. The announcement came hours after President Donald Trump said on Saturday that the United States could launch fresh strikes against Iran as soon as Sunday, while also leaving open a negotiated deal. Iran's army said the drone was operating over southern Iran under its integrated air defence network; LUCAS is a one-way attack drone modelled on Iran's Shahed-136 design, reportedly costing about $35,000 per unit. As of mid-morning Sunday US time, no new US strike had been announced, and diplomatic efforts involving Pakistan and Qatar were reported to be struggling to produce a breakthrough.

What happened

President Trump said Saturday that the United States could launch a military strike against Iran as soon as Sunday — or instead reach what he called a 'big, beautiful' deal with Tehran. Asked by reporters how close he was to ordering an attack, he said: 'We're thinking about doing it, and maybe tomorrow.' He added that Iran wants a deal but questioned whether Tehran would hold one: 'they want to make a deal, but the problem is, will they hold the deal?' Iran pushed back hard the same day: armed forces chief of staff Ali Abdollahi said U.S. military ships would never be allowed into the Persian Gulf 'under any circumstances and at any time,' and a Revolutionary Guard spokesman called American threats 'largely for media consumption' while warning Iran's response to any strike would be 'several times greater.'

What happened

UBS Group cut its Netflix price target to $100 from $115 in a research note issued to investors Wednesday and reported October 23, keeping a Buy rating on the stock. TD Cowen also restated a Buy rating with a $100 target on October 21. On the other side of the tape, high-profile investors are buying the selloff: Bill Ackman has re-established a Netflix position and reportedly expects annualized returns above 20%, while Cathie Wood's Ark Invest bought 18,000 shares after the decline. The stock hit a new 52-week low earlier this week, now trading around 17x forward earnings.

What happened

Reports on Friday said SpaceX is pursuing thousands of U.S. cell sites to establish a fourth national wireless carrier. The news hammered incumbent carriers in Friday trading: AT&T and T-Mobile each sank nearly 8%, while Verizon shed 1.2%, dragging down the broader communication services sector. Conversely, U.S. cell-tower operators rallied hard on the prospect of a well-funded new tenant — Crown Castle jumped 9% and American Tower gained 4%. SpaceX shares rose about 1.9% on the session.

What happened

On Friday Oct 23, U.S. Ambassador to Türkiye Tom Barrack (also Washington's special envoy for Syria) told podcast host Mario Nawfal that a U.S. strike on Iran could come as early as this weekend — 'Could there be a strike this weekend? Absolutely.' Asked about it on landing in Florida, President Trump distanced himself: 'He's a pretty powerful man, I guess. If that's the case, I don't know anything about it.' Later, at a Florida rally, Trump himself hinted at renewed strikes: 'We may do another little Epic Fury. Or they will agree' — 'Epic Fury' being the U.S. military's name for the war on Iran. Separately, eight foreign ministers (R4: Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Egypt; E3: UK, France, Germany; plus Italy) met in Istanbul on Friday and urged Washington not to attack Iran again. Al Jazeera reported Iran has detailed plans to strike undersea communications cables in the Gulf if war resumes — a threat to regional financial data flows — and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said President Pezeshkian will meet Vladimir Putin in Moscow next week.

What happened

OpenAI told investors this week it is close to finalizing a funding round of up to $30 billion at a $1.25 trillion pre-money valuation (~$1.28 trillion post-money), led by Coatue and investors from the United Arab Emirates, with the UAE funding possibly coupled with a deal giving OpenAI more compute capacity from the UAE, CNBC reported. Per the Financial Times, OpenAI cut the target from the $1.4 trillion it pitched earlier in October after investor pushback — sources described 'indigestion' among backers, and Morgan Stanley and Dragoneer had shown the higher $1.4 trillion figure to private-wealth clients. OpenAI wants signatures by Oct 30. Reuters reported OpenAI is rushing to lock in commitments before Anthropic's expected mid-November IPO, which is targeting a $1.5-2 trillion valuation, since both draw on the same investor pool; SoftBank and MGX are negotiating to join the round.

What happened

U.S. stocks closed sharply lower Friday as the Iran conflict escalated: the Dow finished down 653 points (-1.2%) after falling as much as 750 intraday, the S&P 500 fell 0.5% for a second straight day, and the Nasdaq shed 0.2% following Thursday's 2.6% rout — its worst since June. Brent crude jumped 2.7% to $116.24 a barrel and WTI rose to ~$103.60, both five-month highs, with Brent on track for a weekly gain above 10%. The U.S. ordered non-emergency personnel and their families to leave Saudi Arabia amid reports the U.S. and Israel are drawing up plans for fresh strikes on Iran after the November 3 midterm elections. Iran's IRGC claimed four vessels were struck and caught fire in the Gulf and three others struck mines in the Strait of Hormuz; Trump accused Iran on Truth Social of 'making up fake hits, mines, and everything else' to drive oil prices higher before the midterms. National average gasoline hit $4.29/gallon (AAA).

What happened

The TJX Companies reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 results that beat on every major metric: net sales of about $15.1 billion (+7% y/y) vs. ~$14.85B consensus, consolidated comparable sales of +5% vs. ~+3.7% expected and the company's own +2% to +3% plan, and diluted EPS of $1.28 (+12% y/y) vs. ~$1.22-$1.23 expected. Pretax margin widened 40 bps to 12.7%, ~60 bps above the high end of plan, driven by ~100 bps of gross-margin expansion to ~32.6%. Management raised full-year FY26 guidance: EPS to $4.63-$4.66 (from $4.52-$4.57) and full-year comps to ~+4% (from +3%).

What happened

American Express disclosed plans to cut roughly 5% of its workforce alongside its third-quarter report, a notable cost-reduction move for a Dow component. The company posted a 31% increase in Q3 profit and raised the lower end of its 2026 earnings guidance (now adjusted EPS of $17.60-$17.90 versus $17.30-$17.90 previously), but quarterly revenue slightly missed expectations: total network volume of $517.9 billion came in below the $519.5 billion consensus, with year-over-year growth decelerating to 8% from 9% in the prior quarter. The beat was flattered by a lower-than-expected provision for credit losses ($985 million versus a $1.31 billion estimate). Shares fell 3.7% on Friday, the steepest decline among Dow components.

What happened

President Trump signed an executive order Thursday, 'Decreasing Housing Costs for the American People,' directing the Federal Housing Finance Agency to launch a pilot program that proactively cancels borrowers' mortgage insurance premiums once equity requirements are met based on current market value. The White House billed it as an affordability measure. The order also permanently expands the FHFA's title-insurance waiver pilot for refinancings, creates a Task Force on Manufactured Housing Innovation, and directs the Agriculture and Veterans Affairs secretaries to reduce interest rates on single-family loans their departments make. Shares of private mortgage insurers — Enact, Essent, MGIC, and Radian — rose 1.5% to 4% on Friday.

What happened

The Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, October 23, that the United States is expected to remove 50% tariffs on some Canadian agricultural and forestry products in a proclamation that could come as early as today, citing people familiar with the upcoming action (Reuters, 18:05 UTC). The report says the move is designed to help Maine Senator Susan Collins and other Republican candidates in the upcoming midterm elections; Collins has been pressing for tariff relief amid a competitive race. The WSJ's sources caution that the scope and timing could still change, and that the U.S. may simultaneously raise tariffs on other Canadian goods to offset the cut — meaning total affected trade could be roughly unchanged, as in last month's tariff reshuffle. The White House called the reporting speculation and said any formal decisions would be announced by the administration.

What happened

Wells Fargo, Arm and Intuit have joined a growing list of companies objecting to their shares being 'tokenized' on OKXICE, Reuters reported Friday, October 23, citing a regulatory document. The total number of companies that have now objected is 22, the document reportedly states. Corporate issuers Microsoft and Alphabet had already filed objections against having their shares tokenized under the SEC framework, according to DL News.

What happened

Dell Technologies announced that General Counsel Richard Rothberg will retire in 2027 and that Christopher Garcia will succeed him as General Counsel, according to reports published Friday, October 23. The planned transition was described as unlikely to materially affect near-term earnings, adding a management-change consideration as Dell navigates AI-server supply-chain constraints and memory-cost pressure.

What happened

Brent crude surged nearly 4% to about $117 a barrel by midday Friday, October 23 — not far from its earlier wartime peak of around $122 and the highest since March — while WTI rose 2.9% to $102.40, according to the NY Post. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell as much as 800 points before paring losses to about 700 points (1.3%) by 10:40 a.m. ET; the S&P 500 fell 0.4% and the Nasdaq traded roughly flat. President Trump wrote on Truth Social Thursday accusing Iran of 'doing everything they can to drive up the price of Oil prior to the US Midterm Election,' claiming Tehran is 'making up fake hits, mines, and everything else.' On the Iranian side, Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said the nation was preparing for fresh attacks in a post on X, and Iran's IRGC claimed four vessels were struck and caught fire in the Gulf with three more striking mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

What happened

Tesla's quarterly 10-Q filing on Thursday disclosed that the U.S. Supreme Court's February 2026 ruling invalidating certain tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) let the company recognize $786 million in tariff refunds in Q3: $526 million as a reduction to energy generation and storage cost of revenues, and $260 million as a reduction to automotive sales cost of revenues. Adjusted for all refund impacts, automotive gross profit margin excluding regulatory credits was about 17% -- in line with, not above, Wall Street expectations -- and total gross margin about 18%, also in line. GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson calculated that, net of a $339 million revenue reduction Tesla recorded for customer refunds owed, the tariff benefits added $447 million to gross profit -- roughly 62% of Q3 operating income. Stripped of the one-time benefit, Johnson puts gross margin at 17.8% (vs. 19.6% reported), operating margin at 1.0% (vs. 2.6% reported), GAAP EPS at $0.12 (vs. $0.22 reported, $0.20 estimated) and non-GAAP EPS at $0.38 (vs. $0.48 reported, ~$0.44 consensus) -- turning the beats into misses. Tesla shares fell 3.1% on Thursday, though that was also a broad down day for the market.